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Managing Political Risk in an Uncertain World

Cross-border investment now sits on a spectrum from expropriation to disrupted trade and outright war. A right on paper is not enough; what matters is whether it can be vindicated before a neutral forum in an enforceable award. This July 2026 briefing speaks both to the Turkish investor going abroad and to the foreign investor entering Türkiye.

Four instruments do the work: national investment legislation (in Türkiye, Law No. 4875), direct agreements with the state and stabilisation clauses, investment treaties, and political risk insurance. Türkiye has signed more than a hundred BITs since 1962 and is a member of ICSID and MIGA; standing, irrevocable consent to arbitration — as in the Austria treaty — is often the decisive clause.

The layers work together; how they interact must be settled at structuring, not at the claim. Once the insurer pays, subrogation follows, and the Turkish Commercial Code tracks that logic. Proof, exclusions and the duty of fair presentation — especially where expropriation is informal — turn the file into a dispute.

The full text is below.

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